How do you know what will happen next? I’m not sure, but there is some evidence, in all that data pudding. On that note, it has been hard to write lately, trying to lift weights 
, but I wanted to get this down.
There is a lot of powerful data in Google Trends and other free data tools. Enough to where I would argue that every company should hire a person to just stare at Google(and increasingly, Twitter and Facebook(lexicon)) trends to decipher what it all means for your business.
Below is from an email exchange and couple of tweets that I put out there, looking at making a case for finding the next hot ticket on the web. Via email, the person I was talking with was using Google and some other free data services, trying to map media/tech trends based on buzz. The basic argument/questions from the email: MySpace was hot for 2 1/2 years, Facebook for about 18 months(based on trending data) When will twitter peak? And then what is next? What was before MySpace?
Short Answer: I have no idea.
Long Answer:
It is hard to look at Twitter or Facebook and compare them to MySpace. They are two platforms that really change the game and while I think MySpace was a game changer for allowing people to live their life online, it lacked the vision that FaceBook and Twitter have.
Is Facebook past the buzz? The above chart doesnt back this up. It is still growing. There is definitely diminishing returns on buzz, when you reach 200M users. (for instance, Add Google to the graph to see what the trend looks like when they hit critical mass)
To answer the question, I think you have to ask the question; What are the core problems that these platforms are trying to solve? This should help show what the next trend will be. Similar to the Web 2.0 world that came out of Google’s Mission: Organizing the World’s Information and Making it Searchable.
What are the core problems that these platforms are trying to solve?
Facebook: Social Graph and Networked Presence(ie. What are you doing?)
Twitter: Search(immediacy/discovery), Public Presence, Follow(different than friending)
The follow strategy is where it is starting to get interesting, from a trend level. Follow leads to Public data, which creates Search and other tools, that leads to Discovery. We are seeing Facebook starting to go to a follow strategy and Tumblr, from a CMS level, has the best follow strategy among conversational platforms outside of Twitter. WordPress.Com is, surprisingly, behind here. About a year ago, I thought they would dominate in this space.
Where is this going form a media level?
We are seeing a refinement of the CMS to a centralized location. The whole idea of owning your own domain and controlling it seems to be out, in replace of it is a Smart Content Management System that allows you to do short simple tasks on top of it. The analogy to Personal Computing would be how the majority of PC owners at one time moded their PCs. Now, you can’t even take a damn battery out for fear it wont work with the larger connected system.
Publishing Model Evolving. Content Wants to be Free, Value is in… Something Else
I like Huffington Post and Business Insider models. Smart, connected CMS’ that rely on the long tail of content and are built on a model of aggregation, curation and smart networks(link below). Lead with community, a connected platform, and social equity, and the content will naturally fall into place. Two good posts along these lines:
Newspapers and Thinking the Unthinkable – Clay Shirky
Outside.in Saves Newspapers – Mark Josephson
How are Companies Online Strategies Evolving? A good question for marketers to answer
Key here is: Getting Distribution and winning over customers and independent developer communities to live on your platform. Battelle wrote a great piece interviewing Oren Michel’s of Mashery.
Getting Horizontal – John Battelle
A nugget from that post:
“Companies that create platforms which enable customers to leverage internal data with collective intelligence will win.”
What does this look like?
An example of a major brand that leverages John’s principle and the architecture of participation. (ie. Feeding the Machine)
Barack Obama: The MyBrarackObama platform was created to take a grassroots concept of campaigning and bring it online. Further creating a networked community that could serve the greater good. What this meant, was you could sign up for all kinds of activities that would have a direct correlation to how campaigners could go about on the ground campaigning.
For instance, I signed up for Phone Banking from the web platform. They gave me 25 numbers to call in the swing state of Pennsylvania. When I called, I would fill out if the person picked up the phone, who they were voting for, if they wanted more informaiton, etc. This in real time populated databases for local campaigners and they could either check this house off the list, or go at them with further Obama messaging. We were all feeding the machine.
How to spot trends within the next hot company?
Spotting new trends can sometimes come out of looking at the companies that continue to change the game, but are now “old school”. ie. What was hot before MySpace?
Example: Amazon, on top of the best customer service(collective intelligence) they also have one of the best API environments(leverage internal data) for developers. Additionally, they provide developers with the “generator” for their business with innovative products like EC2 and S3. They keep the light bulbs on and provide the best architecture. They’ve captured the whole ecosystem of innovation and progress for consumers and developers on one platform.
What is the new trend in marketing?
Umair Haque has a fascinating post looking at new world strategies from companies like Threadless to Zara:
A User’s Guide to 21st Century Economics – Umair Haque
What is the role of marketing in a world where consumption must slow?
In the 20th century, marketing was the pusher of a consumption addiction: Madison Ave’s game was to create perceived value by “differentiating” the same razors, blades, and toothpaste. At the Lab, we’ve found that companies who create perceived value are significantly less profitable and more vulnerable than companies who are rethinking marketing to create real value.
My question: As the world continues to change around us, how can we rethink marketing, like Umair asks, to create real value for everyone involved?
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